DK2050 – Scenarier for et grønnere Danmark
DK2050 is setting out to create a qualified, national debate on the subject of how to create a sustainable society and sustainable urban living by 2050. DK2050 will concentrate on the possible futures and directions, at which towns and regions can aim, in order to design healthy and sustainable environments.
In the Denmark of tomorrow we will live and work in new ways, which will totally transform the Denmark we know today. We cannot see into the future, but it looks as if it will involve both promising and slightly bleaker trends, to which we will have to adapt. High-speed trains and smart cars will make their mark and transport us from A to B in new ways. The proportion of elderly people in Denmark will increase significantly. Climate change will increase the pressure on green conversion. Copenhagen expects to house 100,000 new residents in just 10 years. Cities will work together across the Øresund, Kattegat and the Fehmarn Belt.
We can influence some trends, but there are other developments, which we will just have to deal with as best we can. There are probably some trends we have not even detected.
The objective of DK2050 is to promote real innovation in terms of how to think strategically and in the long term, across borders and sectors, in the planning of towns and cities, infrastructure, energy, trade and transport. An important resource in the debate is the development of 3-5 scenarios for the future, which will expose some of the main challenges facing Denmark.
Publications
Partners and participants
DK2050 is being developed and run by the Danish Architecture Center (DAC) in partnership with Realdania and the Danish Ministry of Culture, the Danish Ministry of Environment, the Danish Ministry of Business and Growth, and the Danish Ministry of Climate and Building.
The ten municipalities taking part in the project are: Aalborg, Aarhus, Ringkøbing-Skjern, Sønderborg, Fredericia, Middelfart, Odense, Kalundborg, Høje-Taastrup and Copenhagen.
In addition to these towns and cities, the Region of Southern Denmark, North Denmark Region and the Capital Region of Denmark are also taking part. Ramboll and Landowners’ Investment Fund are partners in the project and DAMVAD and Kairos Future are analysis partners.
Partnerships in the project
Realdania and the Ministry of Culture, the Ministry of Environment, the Ministry of Business and Growth and the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Building.
Partners
The Landowners’ Investment Fund, the Danish Art Foundation and Ramboll
Partners – analysis
DAMVAD and Kairos Future
Architects
Mutopia, SLETH architects, WE architects
Knowledge Panel
Professor Katherine Richardson Copenhagen University, Professor Mark Lorenzen Copenhagen Business School, Professor Brian Vad Mathiesen Aalborg University, Professor Gertrud Jørgensen Copenhagen University
Project Developers
Danish Architechture Center
Future scenarios for Denmark in 2050
The four scenarios for Denmark in 2050.
The four scenarios for Denmark
Déjá vus can be confusing. Have I experienced this before? As if a little piece of the future has sneaked up on the present and now pushes our understanding of the world. This is how scenarios work: As a gaze into the crystal ball. The scenarios can make us think and act. This is why the project DK2050 uses scenarios as a key tool in creating a qualified debate about which actions to take in order to realize green conversion 2050.
The research-based consultancy DAMVAD has, in collaboration with futurologists from the consulting and research company Kairos Future, developed four scenarios predicting how Denmark and Danish cities may develop, the common denominator being green conversion. These scenarios are meant to change the focus of the strategic and political discussions from the immediate, present-day one to a focus on future, wider perspectives.
Multiple possible futures for Denmark
The scenarios are made out of both trends that are certain, and trends that are still uncertain, possible developments. DAMVAD and Kairos Future has, in collaboration with Danish municipalities, regions and businesses identified a number of trends, which are sure to affect the direction in which Denmark develops in the future:
- Urbanisation
- Ageing population
- Digitalisation
- Climate changes
- Development of green technology
- Co-creation
As opposed to this, we have the potential ways in which the future may shape itself, ways that again shape the number of options and choices we have, when we want to influence the level of green conversion in Denmark.
DAMVAD and Kairos Future have developed the scenarios i DK2050 by taking as starting point two uncertainty axes: One is about whether individual or collective values dominate in the future; the other about the level of interplay between politics and green technology. Together, these axes of uncertainty create different scenarios, demonstrating what might propel green conversion in each of the four scenarios.
The four scenarios are outlined in further detail in our scenario study “Green growth in Denmark 2050: Four future scenarios”.
“The purpose of scenarios is not to predict the future, but to seek out possible developments in order to aid decision-makers in the planning of what might seem impossible today. In other words, the scenario method is not an exact science.”
Ulf Boman, partner, Kairos Future
DK2050 is being developed and run by the Danish Architecture Center (DAC) in partnership with Realdania and the Danish Ministry of Culture, the Danish Ministry of Environment, the Danish Ministry of Business and Growth, and the Danish Ministry of Climate and Building.
Ten municipalities are taking part in the project: Aalborg, Aarhus, Ringkøbing-Skjern, Sønderborg, Fredericia, Middelfart, Odense, Kalundborg, Høje-Taastrup and Copenhagen. The cities were chosen because they are front-runners in sustainable urban development and strategic urban planning, and widely distributed throughout Denmark, thus representing the country’s various regions. In addition to these towns and cities, the Region of Southern Denmark, North Denmark Region and the Capital Region of Denmark are also taking part.
Ramboll and the Landowners’ Investment Fund are partners in the project and will make regular contributions to its development.
DAMVAD and Kairos Future have been selected as analytical and scenario partners. They will be responsible for creating the scenarios.